Application of Bayesian Networks in Consumer Service Industry and Healthcare

Gao, Yuan. M.S.I.E., Purdue University. December 2014. Application of Bayesian Networks in Consumer Service Industry. Major Professor: Vincent G. Duffy. The purpose of the present study is to explore the application of Bayesian networks in the consumer service industry to model causal relationships within complex risk factor structures using aggregate data. An analysis of the Hawaii tourism market was conducted to find out how visitor characteristics affect their behavior and experience as consumers during the trips, and influence the tourism market outcomes represented by measurable factors. Two hypotheses were proposed regarding the use of aggregate data and the influence of visitor origin, and were verified through the analysis. The source data came from the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s official website, including monthly tourists highlight reports over a period of 36 months. The analysis verified the hypotheses that visitor origin, as a symbol of cultural background, plays an important role in their behavior, preferences, decisions and experience in consuming. The results were validated both statistically and against literature and expert opinion. In the increasingly segmented tourism market, such findings can help tourism service providers improve consumer satisfaction and loyalty with assistance in policymaking, investment decision-making, resource planning, and strategic marketing.